---
aliases:
  en:
  - probability of doom
  - Pdoom
  ja:
  - 破滅確率
  - 破滅の確率
concept_id: p_doom
preferred:
  en: p(doom)
  ja: p(doom)
relations:
  relations:
    prerequisite:
    - ai_risk
status: active
---

# p(doom)

Informal shorthand for a person's subjective probability of a specified AI-related 'doom' outcome, often human extinction or a comparably catastrophic and irreversible loss of humanity's future. The number is under-specified unless the outcome, causal attribution, conditioning assumptions, and time horizon are stated, and it need not equal the probability of existential catastrophe from AI.

## prerequisite

- [AI risk](../terminology/ai_risk.txt)

## Documents: about

- [p(doom)は開発停止・テイクオフ・規制の条件に依存する](../documents/akira.pdoom-is-conditional-on-pause-and-takeoff.txt)
- [「doom」を単一確率に畳まず、複数の重大なリスクを区別して見積もる](../documents/christiano.doom-is-serious-but-not-modal.txt)

## Documents: mentions

- [十分な時間と慎重さがあれば、アラインメントは解決可能である](../documents/akira.alignment-is-solvable-with-time-and-care.txt)
- [Control が生存確率を押し上げる世界線は狭い](../documents/akira.control-has-narrow-survival-credit.txt)

[Corpus index](../index.txt)